Research activities

Findings of Dual Use Research – PhD thesis “Analysis of transformations in specialization structures and business models generated by the use of dual technologies” – 2024

In the evolving discourse on technological innovation and its socioeconomic ramifications, dual-use technologies—those with applications spanning civilian and military domains—emerge as a focal point for scholarly inquiry. The PhD thesis by Cosmin Lianu, titled Analiza Transformărilor în Planul Structurilor de Specializare și al Modelelor de Afaceri Generate de Utilizarea Tehnologiilor Duale (Analysis of Transformations in Specialization Structures and Business Models Generated by the Use of Dual Technologies), under the scientific coordination of Prof. univ. dr. Dumitru Miron, offers a rigorous exploration of this nexus. The work delineates the research’s objectives, hypotheses, guiding questions, methodological framework, epistemological challenges, empirical results, conclusions, recommendations, and broader implications, situating dual-use technologies within the interplay of geoeconomic and geopolitical dynamics. This academic exposition synthesizes the key elements, elucidating its contributions to understanding paradigm shifts in business models and specialization structures amid disruptive technological advancements.

The inquiry articulates a coherent framework of objectives, commencing with a principal aim that underscores the transformative potential of dual-use technologies. The core objective is to identify the most efficacious business models applicable to dual-use technologies, particularly in light of paradigm shifts precipitated by contemporary geoeconomic and geopolitical evolutions. This encompasses an evaluation of how global economic interdependencies and political tensions reshape technological deployment, fostering hybrid models that bridge civilian innovation with defense imperatives.

Complementing this, the secondary objectives provide a multifaceted analytical scaffold:

1. Conceptual Clarifications in Technological Duality: This entails a systematic elucidation of foundational concepts, addressing ambiguities in defining dual-use technologies. By dissecting the dual nature—civilian utility juxtaposed with military applicability—the research seeks to refine terminological precision, thereby facilitating more nuanced policy and academic discussions.
2. Identification of Key Changes Induced by Technological Duality on Novel Business Models: Here, the inquiry probes the structural alterations engendered by duality, such as adaptations in value chains, revenue streams, and operational strategies. It highlights how dual-use attributes compel firms to navigate bifurcated markets, potentially yielding hybrid models that enhance resilience and innovation.
3. Analysis of Disruptive Technologies’ Impact and Geopolitical/Geoeconomic Dimensions on Dual-Use Applications: This objective examines the ramifications of disruptive innovations (e.g., artificial intelligence, advanced materials, or biotechnology) alongside geopolitical and geoeconomic factors. Particular emphasis is placed on regulatory challenges in export controls, including compliance with international regimes that mitigate proliferation risks while preserving economic competitiveness.
4. Assessment of Business Alliances’ Role and Significance in Enhancing Sectoral Competitiveness: The research evaluates how strategic partnerships and alliances amplify competitive advantages in dual-use sectors. By fostering collaborative ecosystems, such alliances mitigate risks, pool resources, and accelerate technology transfer, thereby bolstering firms’ positions in volatile global markets.

Collectively, these objectives position the thesis as a bridge between theoretical abstraction and practical application, illuminating pathways for sustainable business adaptation in dual-use contexts.

Research Hypotheses

The thesis posits four interrelated hypotheses to empirically test the transformative dynamics of dual-use technologies on specialization structures and business models:

• Hypothesis H1: Dual-use technologies positively influence specialization structures. This hypothesis anticipates that the dual applicability of technologies fosters optimized specialization patterns, enabling firms to leverage synergies between civilian and military domains for enhanced efficiency and adaptability.
• Hypothesis H2: Dual-use technologies positively influence business models. This proposition examines whether duality drives innovations in business architectures, such as diversified revenue streams and flexible operational frameworks, albeit with potential contingencies arising from regulatory and market complexities.
• Hypothesis H3: Specialization structures positively influence business models. Here, the focus is on how concentrated expertise in niche areas—stemming from dual-use integrations—bolsters overall business efficacy, promoting streamlined operations and competitive differentiation.
• Hypothesis H4: External factors positively influence dual-use technologies. This hypothesis underscores the role of exogenous variables, including economic, geopolitical, legal, technological, social, and environmental elements, in accelerating the development and adoption of dual-use innovations.

Guiding Research Questions

To operationalize the objectives and test the hypotheses, the thesis formulates a series of interrogative probes designed to dissect the multifaceted impacts of dual-use technologies. These questions include:

• How do conceptual ambiguities in defining technological duality influence the development of adaptive business models in dual-use sectors?
• In what ways do disruptive technologies alter specialization structures, and what geoeconomic factors mediate these changes?
• What are the primary geopolitical risks associated with dual-use applications, and how do export control regulations shape business strategies in response?
• To what extent do business alliances enhance sectoral competitiveness, and what mechanisms facilitate effective collaboration in dual-use environments?
• Can hybrid business models derived from dual-use technologies mitigate the volatilities induced by global economic interdependencies and political tensions?

These questions serve as analytical anchors, guiding the empirical investigation toward a comprehensive understanding of duality’s transformative effects.

Methodological Aspects

The methodological framework employed in the thesis is interdisciplinary and mixed-methods in nature, integrating qualitative and quantitative approaches to address the inherent complexities of dual-use technologies. Qualitative methods encompass literature reviews, case studies of exemplary firms in dual-use sectors, and expert interviews with stakeholders from industry, academia, and regulatory bodies. These are complemented by quantitative techniques, including econometric modeling to assess impacts on business performance, statistical analysis of trade data related to dual-use exports, and network analysis to evaluate alliance structures. The research design incorporates a comparative perspective, examining case examples from European Union contexts alongside global benchmarks, while accounting for data limitations through proxy variables and sensitivity analyses. Ethical considerations, such as confidentiality in sensitive defense-related discussions, are rigorously upheld, ensuring the study’s validity and reliability in a field marked by regulatory sensitivities.

Epistemological and Praxiological Barriers Overcome

A salient feature of the work is its candid acknowledgment of the intellectual and practical hurdles encountered during the research process. These barriers, framed epistemologically (relating to knowledge production) and praxiologically (pertaining to practical implementation), underscore the complexities inherent in studying dual-use technologies:

• Conceptual and Terminological Unclarities in Specialized Literature: Pervasive ambiguities exist in defining operative concepts, determining factors, and their impacts on business models and specialization structures. Compounded by inconsistencies in regulatory and institutional frameworks, these gaps necessitated a critical synthesis of extant literature to establish a coherent analytical foundation.
• Insufficiency or Discontinuity of Relevant Statistical Data: A recurrent challenge is the paucity of comparable, longitudinal datasets, which hampers empirical validation. The research employed methodological innovations, such as proxy indicators or qualitative case studies, to circumvent these limitations and derive robust inferences.
• High Volatility in the Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Climate: The dynamic nature of global affairs—exemplified by trade tensions, sanctions, and shifting alliances—introduces unpredictability. This volatility demands adaptive research designs that account for real-time evolutions, ensuring the study’s relevance amid fluid international landscapes.
• Methodological Difficulties in Quantifying Impacts: Quantifying the effects of dual-use technologies on business models and specialization structures poses inherent challenges, including measurement of intangible benefits like innovation spillover or risk mitigation. The thesis integrates mixed-methods approaches, blending econometric modeling with qualitative assessments to surmount these obstacles.

By surmounting these barriers, the research not only advances methodological rigor but also contributes to the epistemological maturation of the field, offering transferable insights for future inquiries into technology-driven transformations.

Key Results and Findings

The empirical validation of the hypotheses reveals nuanced insights into the interrelationships among dual-use technologies, specialization structures, business models, and external factors:

• Validation of Hypothesis H1: Dual-use technologies positively influence specialization structures—validated. This finding underscores the plausibility and utility of duality in decision-making processes, particularly amid post-Cold War shifts in research and development logic. The intensifying competition among major powers, notably between the United States and China, heightens interest in commercial technologies that augment defense capabilities, thereby stimulating efficient specialization structures tailored to this geopolitical context.
• Validation of Hypothesis H2: Dual-use technologies positively influence business models—partially validated. The partial affirmation aligns with analytical scrutiny and specialized literature, indicating that firms developing dual-use technologies gain access to both governmental contracts and commercial markets, thereby diversifying revenue sources. To accommodate these dual applications, enterprises must recalibrate their business models, exhibiting flexibility and responsiveness to bifurcated demands.
• Validation of Hypothesis H3: Specialization structures positively influence business models—validated. This outcome highlights the plausibility and decisional utility of specialization within organizational frameworks, emphasizing its profound impact on enterprise functionality and success. Specialization entails a focused orientation toward specific products, services, or niche domains, enabling firms to achieve operational efficiencies and superior performance.
• Validation of Hypothesis H4: External factors positively influence dual-use technologies—validated. The validation affirms the plausibility and practical relevance of exogenous influences—encompassing economic, geopolitical, legal, technological, social, and environmental dimensions—in propelling the rapid evolution of dual-use technologies. Organizations are compelled to innovate continuously to align with the perpetual transformations characterizing the external business environment.

These results substantiate the thesis’s overarching framework, demonstrating how dual-use paradigms facilitate structural adaptations and competitive enhancements.

Conclusions and Recommendations

The thesis culminates in a synthesis of conclusions and recommendations derived from the validated hypotheses, offering actionable insights for stakeholders in dual-use sectors.

For H1, the positive influence of dual-use technologies on specialization structures is deemed plausible and instrumental in strategic decision-making, especially as global power rivalries redefine research and development priorities, urging the cultivation of commercially viable defense enhancements. Recommendations include fostering policies that incentivize specialization in dual-use niches to capitalize on these geopolitical shifts.

Regarding H2, the partial validation of dual-use technologies’ impact on business models is supported by evidence of revenue diversification and adaptive necessities, with recommendations centering on the development of flexible frameworks that integrate governmental and commercial imperatives, thereby mitigating risks associated with market duality.

For H3, the affirmative linkage between specialization structures and business models underscores the value of niche focus for operational efficacy, recommending that enterprises prioritize specialization strategies to optimize resource allocation and market positioning.

Finally, H4’s validation highlights the accelerative role of external factors in dual-use innovation, with recommendations advocating for proactive monitoring and adaptive innovation practices to navigate the multifaceted external milieu, ensuring sustained technological advancement and organizational resilience.These conclusions not only affirm the empirical robustness of the research but also provide a prescriptive lens for policymakers, industry leaders, and academics to harness dual-use technologies for sustainable growth.

Broader Implications and Prospective Contributions

The thesis’s emphasis on dual-use technologies resonates with contemporary debates in innovation economics, strategic management, and international relations, particularly in contexts like the European Union’s dual-use export controls or NATO’s technology integration strategies.

In essence, Lianu’s work posits dual-use technologies as catalysts for structural reconfiguration, where business models evolve from linear to ecosystemic paradigms, and specialization structures adapt to hybrid demands. These foster enhanced competitiveness through alliances, while navigating regulatory landscapes shaped by geopolitical exigencies. The thesis, under Prof. Miron’s guidance, thus serves as a scholarly beacon, advocating for interdisciplinary approaches that harmonize technological duality with sustainable economic development.

Future extensions of this research might explore quantitative metrics for duality’s impact or comparative studies across jurisdictions, enriching the discourse on how geoeconomic shifts influence technological governance. In a world increasingly defined by hybrid threats and opportunities, this thesis underscores the imperative for adaptive, alliance-driven strategies in dual-use domains.

The events organized within the DUC aim to clarify and put in context the key elements of the dual sector, so that participants have access to information on funding, digitization, legislation, international fairs and other opportunities.

Recent developments in artificial intelligence, robotics, drones and more have huge potential for human benefit, but much of the same progress threatens information, control, surveillance, uncontrolled recognition by biased or lethal algorithms for which no one is prepared. Romania needs to understand these developments and integrate them into future efforts.

The complex security risks arising from these biased and lethal algorithms (which are in principle functions of algorithms, data, computing power and an agenda) are rooted in the fact that decision makers involved in the development or deployment of artificial intelligence in general it does not focus on fundamental issues such as “security”. As a result, in Romania it is necessary to build a sustainable culture of dual technology development involving researchers, investors, users, regulators and decision makers in the field to inform and educate those involved, and not only, about the development of algorithms that it could become a dual-use dilemma.